Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Banco Central de Venezuela explains the economic war and the government’s counter offensive

After a 20 days delay the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) has finally reported the inflation index for November (4.8%), and a prediction for December (2.2%).

The numbers are far from President Maduro’s prediction of a deflation of 5%, but the BCV did feel compelled to explain in its report that the “economic dynamics” of the last months have been influenced by a “economic war and a government’s counteroffensive.”

This is the BCV version of the economic war theory as expressed in the first three paragraphs of its report:

Dynamics of price formation in the political and economic juncture of 2013: economic war and government’s counter offensive.

During 2012 the economic situation was characterized by high growth, moderate inflation, and low scarcity levels, which allowed for the celebration of the presidential elections in a stable juncture. However in October 2012 some of the central variables of the Venezuelan economy began to suffer alterations: one of the most noticeable of these alterations was the irrational rise in prices and the speculative extra-official value of the dollar, which lead to a series of consequences for the national economy during the year 2013.

The most serious of these alterations, noticeable since the last quarter of 2012, were registered by price and scarcity indicators, which remained during 2013 at unusually [high] levels. The sickness and passing of our leader, Comandante Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, was taken advantage of by certain sectors of the political opposition and some business owners in order to artificially affect the deterioration of some economic variables.

As has become usual in Venezuela’s history, political tensions and economic destabilization were combined in the form of an authentic economic war against the Venezuelan people, with significant impacts in the prices of the main good and services of most consumption.

The report goes on to explain the “relation” between moments of political tension in recent Venezuelan history and how those moments have “been used” to wage an economic war against the country. It also praises President Maduro for the “extraordinary” measures he took during November 2013 against speculation and argues, without explaining the methodology behind this assertion, that inflation would have reached 6% in November, instead of 4.8%, if it were not for the “economic counter offensive” of the Venezuelan government.

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