The day before the announcement of recent
sanctions and the ensuing anti-imperialist reaction, I made this comment to a
question by the Latin
American Advisor:
Q: The government of Venezuelan President Nicolás
Maduro recently arrested Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma over accusations of
involvement in a coup plot and has also sought to remove legislator Julio
Borges from his seat, moves critics have said are the latest in a series of
illegal attempts to silence opposition leaders. What is the state of the
opposition in Venezuela today, and how are the government’s actions affecting
its strategy? Will the opposition be able to capitalize on Maduro’s low
popularity, which currently sits at about 20 percent, in parliamentary
elections that are expected to take place later this year?
A: Hugo Pérez Hernáiz, professor of sociology at the
Universidad Central de Venezuela: “If the opposition wants to capitalize on the
government’s low popularity and win the next legislative elections, it will
have to overcome several hurdles. First, the opposition has to sort out its
internal differences between its radical and ‘electoral’ factions. Recent
announcements from the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) of successful
negotiations for the primaries and designated candidates are a good sign, but
not the end of the story, as many opposition supporters could heed
abstentionist calls regularly made through social media. Second, the opposition
will face a government that will use its hold on most of the local media to
frame the elections, not as a struggle between a powerful government and a
battered opposition, but rather as an epic battle of a revolutionary
nationalist movement against an imperial power and its local lackeys.
Anti-imperialism will probably resonate most with the hard-core Chavista base
and not among general voters, but the government could use the anti-imperialist
rhetoric to justify further crackdowns on the opposition. For example, by
politically inhibiting or arresting key opposition leaders, even candidates for
the Assembly, the opposition’s electoral bid could be significantly weakened
and the radical abstentionist faction strengthened. And last, a pre-elections
surprise by the government, such as last year’s dacazo before the regional
elections, cannot be ruled out.”
Yesterday the president of the National
Assembly Diosdado
Cabello had this to say at a political rally:
“We are going to send a message to the Venezuelan
opposition: the fatherland [Patria]
is being threatened. Any Venezuelan unwilling to defend the fatherland is surely
willing to be a traitor, is surely willing to be an enemy, is surely willing to
be an evil doer [malinche], and as
such, he must be treated. The fatherland must be defended.”
President
Maduro declared yesterday that the real objective of the recent sanctions imposed
on Venezuelan officials is to force the government to free Leopoldo López, whom
he called and agent of the Untied States:
“They declare a whole country as a threat in
order to save one of their agents: Leopoldo López. They accuse us because
Venezuelan justice has jailed the main agents they have sent in order to
destabilize Venezuela. It is because of them [the opposition] that this country
has been catalogued by the United States as a threat. (…) If something positive
has come out of this juncture, is that the real enemies of the fatherland have
come out from their hideouts, that [the fact has come out that] they have waged
an economic war against us, a political war, a psychological war, and coup d’état
attempts.”
Chavista political leader Juan Barreto also
questioned the patriotism of the opposition. He
is quoted by AVN:
“The right believes that the fatherland means
only business, they ignore the true meaning of being born in this land, because
to be Venezuelan is to be revolutionary.”
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